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Escalating Middle East Conflict Drives Global Oil Volatility and Raises Fuel Price Concerns

Escalating Middle East Conflict Drives Global Oil Volatility and Raises Fuel Price Concerns

Johannesburg, Tuesday, 10 March 2026 – The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa notes with concern the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global oil markets.

Recent developments involving attacks on Iran have led to heightened uncertainty in international fuels markets and increased attention on key global shipping and supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. This corridor is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, through which a significant share of globally traded crude oil and petroleum products passes. Any disruption in this region can have immediate consequences for global oil supply and prices.

Beyond the price of crude oil itself, geopolitical tensions can also affect global shipping costs and insurance premiums for tankers operating in sensitive regions. These additional costs can ultimately feed into the landed cost of petroleum products imported by fuel-importing countries such as South Africa.

While global oil markets have experienced price volatility as a result of these developments, it is important to emphasise that South Africa’s fuel supply remains stable for the time being, and the industry has not observed any systematic fuel shortages.

The Fuels Industry Association notes that South Africa sources a significant portion of its fuel imports from the Gulf countries currently affected by the ongoing conflict. However, based on information from industry members, the bulk of March imports remains secure and is expected to arrive in the country as planned.

In parallel, the Association and its members are actively diversifying supply options by exploring alternative sourcing routes outside the Strait of Hormuz to other regions less impacted by current developments.

We encourage the public to maintain normal fuel‑purchasing behaviour. Sudden changes in buying patterns can create artificial pressure on the supply system, which may unintentionally worsen the situation.

For South Africa, a high reliance on imported crude oil and refined petroleum products means that developments in international energy markets have a direct impact on the country’s fuel supply dynamics and pricing environment. As a result, movements in global product prices together with fluctuations in the exchange rate remain the primary drivers of local fuel price adjustments.

The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa emphasises that the local fuels industry does not control international crude oil prices or the exchange rate. Domestic fuel prices are set through South Africa’s regulated fuel pricing framework, which is administered by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Pump prices are adjusted monthly based on international product prices and the prevailing exchange rate, and the industry does not determine or set retail fuel prices.

The current geopolitical situation underscores the importance of strengthening South Africa’s long‑term fuel security and supply resilience. In this context, the Fuels Industry Association of South Africa believes that sustained collaboration between industry and government should continue to focus on:

  • Ensuring adequate strategic fuel reserves.
  • Maintaining reliable fuel import and logistics infrastructure.
  • Supporting investment in port, storage, and distribution capacity; and
  • Creating a stable policy environment that facilitates investment across the fuel supply chain.

The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa and its members remain committed to working constructively with government and industry stakeholders to ensure the continued availability, reliability, and resilience of fuel supply to the South African economy.

ENDS

About the Association:

The Association represents the collective interests of the South African fuels industry and plays a strategic role in addressing a range of common issues relating to the refining, distribution, and marketing of liquid fuels and transportation energy products, as well as promoting the industry’s environmental and socio-economic progress. The Association fulfils this role by contributing to the development of fuels industry regulation; proactively engaging with key stakeholders; sharing research information; providing expert advice; and communicating the industry’s views.

Kindly note that the Fuels Industry Association of South Africa does not have an acronym. First mention is ‘the Fuels Industry Association of South Africa’, second mention is ‘the Fuels Industry Association’ or ‘the Association’.

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